| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Noplex Stock Report - Daily picks | << 1 ... 2 3 4 5 6 >>Post Follow-up |
| johnpaulca 12,036 posts msg #142511 - Ignore johnpaulca |
2/28/2018 5:08:34 PM Thanks Ed.....still pretty good. |
| CFISHER700 24 posts msg #142519 - Ignore CFISHER700 |
3/1/2018 1:53:48 AM john Paul: Thank you. Not only for the kind words but I appreciate that you realize that these have been volatile times lately. I have an admittedly long winded youtube video that explains the Noplex system. In there I admit I used my original system and was very fortunate...then the market changed and it stopped being as effective. That is when I took a break and created what I call CMBF - a current market behavior filter that is a module I inserted into the system that factors in today's current market. It is probably the most difficult portion of the algorithm in that it takes the most trial and error programming. I have to tweak many. many indicators and can only see if they work by seeing the results in graph form as I test it. Once i'm satisfied I inject it into the process (after the initial screens and before the main lengthy core of the algorithm.) It's as if the core only works on highly filtered data, and the initial screens don't factor enough of today's market into their rules. Only after years of testing did i realize two things: 1) the good news...instead of changing the core algorithm, all I had to do was add the CMBF. That was a tough lesson...to have the courage NOT to change my initial filters and NOT to change the core. By tough, I mean it took a lot of faith in them to create and add a separate module in between the two and the patience to run tests for so long without believing the code before and after the CMBF was still working. Am I rambling? sorry!! Ed: While I don't really follow your math I can only say I've been to busy to summarize things for you but am glad you took the initiative to do your own math. And, I hope you agree with john Paul that 65% is pretty good. (I want to say amazing, because it is, but I don't want to sound bragadocious (sp?) ) The Noplex algo. had suggested ATRC today and readers got in at 18.90 while it rose 3.7% to 19.60. We got out closer to our 2% goal at 19.30 for a 2.12% gain in one day. For Thursday Noplex likes a woman's clothing company and our 2nd algo. called Helix likes a metal products company. If you like to live on the edge our other algorithms like AGEN & CLSD for tomorrow, although they are low-priced and risky. Because of that we don't include them in the newsletter or our tracking portfolios. Thanks again for everyone's comments. i'm sure you realize that if Ed's math had came out making Noplex look bad I'd be trash talking him but since he rates the algorithms at 65% successful I'm not !!!! That's a joke I hope you all get. I have no desire to talk bad but am glad I don't have to stop and do a lot of math to reply to Ed. :) Thanks to all for contributing Noplex Guru |
| nibor100 1,044 posts msg #142534 - Ignore nibor100 |
3/1/2018 1:44:04 PM @Noplex guy, 1. The math I used for my hypothetical 1 excursion is super simple as I let Excel do the work. a. Initially I used the following 2 basic assumptions to figure the 1 year total gain, assuming all 200 Noplex picks earned exactly 2% and gains were compounded: " Assumption 1, since a new black box system, limit initial trade/investment to $2,000. Assumption 2, 252 possible trading days, less 1 day in each of 52 weeks with no stock pick, results in 200 trading days of stock picks for 1 year." b. Then since no backtest data has yet been provided I went ahead and calculated the Hypothetical number of wins and losses required to gain only the reported 46% for that same imaginary year; to compare against the 5,253% gain which would have occurred if all 200 trades were 100% successful. That required the additional assumptions: 3. Each winning trade earned exactly the 2% Noplex target. 4. Each losing trade lost exactly the Noplex recommended Stop target of -3%. 5. Each trade closed before the next trade opened. 6. The order of winning trades and losing trades is of no consequence for this exercise. 2. These results I reported "It turns out that 71 losing trades out of 200 will knock down the gain % to 46, which represents 65% winning trades" are completely hypothetical and most likely don't represent the true percentage of winning trades that go along with the reported recent annual returns of 46% in your initial post in our 'Filter Exchange' forum . I apologize to any SF members who thought I was stating that your system had 65% winners for one year, as only you could possibly know that given the information available for the rest of us. That is one of the reasons we'd like to see actual backtest data, so we can see true performance, true % winning trades, true max drawdown, how many days were there without any trades, how many trades were held longer than 1 day, etc. 3. I'm now quite a bit more curious about the backtest and the reported 46% annual returns, as I found you have a Twitter feed in which you touted 54% returns in your initial Tweet, followed by 46% returns on Dec 2nd, and 40% returns on Dec 16th, to be followed by the 46% reported on StockFetcher on Feb 15th. I can go into more detail about my Excel methodology if anyone needs it, Ed S. |
| johnpaulca 12,036 posts msg #142542 - Ignore johnpaulca |
3/1/2018 3:51:08 PM That's some great forensic work Ed. |
| emwalker 35 posts msg #142557 - Ignore emwalker |
3/2/2018 11:45:37 AM i've had fun reading about this noplex strategy, and it has challenged me to create my own 2% strategy. I dont mean to hijack the thread, but thought it could lead to some good conversations. Back testing is hard since I have to do it by hand, and some days both the 2% target and the 3% stop were hit, so I have to use other software that lets me see hourly candles to see which was hit first. So far I've only looked at the last month. The results are... 3.77 -3.01 -2.99 -2.99 2.00 2.02 2.03 4.86 2.00 -2.99 -1.74 1.95 2.00 -3.01 2.00 -0.82 -1.31 1.98 2.00 While it is only 57.8% accurate, it did end up making 7% in 1 month. The rules were to buy the first listed stock on close, set a 2% limit and a 3% stop. If neither are hit the next day, sell at close. I avoided ETFs in the backtest. If anyone wants to keep backtesting or play around with it.... |
| nibor100 1,044 posts msg #142561 - Ignore nibor100 |
3/2/2018 4:25:32 PM @emwalker, Shucks! I had been modifying the 2% filter that you originally posted on 2/23 and now you've gone an updated it already...more studying to do.:) You've answered one of the questions I had with this recent post and I suspect have answered another but I'll ask it anyway. 2. Was that filter your first shot at a 2% filter or had you developed it prior to the appearance of Noplex on StockFetcher? 3. What was the reasoning behind using a 100 days for your count of the variable "twopctpop"? Thanks, Ed S. |
| emwalker 35 posts msg #142562 - Ignore emwalker modified |
3/2/2018 8:18:38 PM This was my first shot at it, but there have been many before me to write scans looking at how many times a certain percent gain was achieved using the count function. I think TRO was the first with his crockpot filter, I think it was called. I had no reason for using 100 days in the first scan other than I copied that portion from someone else! I guess by using 100 days, you can easily say “this stock hit a 2% gain 75% of the time.” |
| novacane32000 331 posts msg #142563 - Ignore novacane32000 |
3/2/2018 9:04:30 PM Would love to see the backtest results from Noplex guy but I doubt we will ever see them. |
| scott111552 173 posts msg #142565 - Ignore scott111552 |
3/3/2018 6:22:12 AM I'm not trying to highjack this thread either, but I thought you all may find this helpful. This is one of Tro's filters. I simply edited it for a 2% return. Please tweak it as you see the need. Cheers! |
| pthomas215 1,251 posts msg #142566 - Ignore pthomas215 |
3/3/2018 10:38:30 AM you didnt hijack it...great filter. thank you. |
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