ultra5150
15 posts
msg #83822
- Ignore ultra5150 |
12/4/2009 11:12:39 AM
Just wondering if anyone has filters based on Conner's book on high probability ETF trading? I read the book and he backtest all his strategy with high % success rate (over 75%).
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TheAnalyst13
2 posts
msg #83827
- Ignore TheAnalyst13 |
12/4/2009 11:25:34 AM
Connor claims alot.
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #83862
- Ignore BarTune1 |
12/4/2009 4:54:57 PM
Well, if you have the book, the rules are pretty simple. Try scaling into TIP like I did today at the close ....
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ultra5150
15 posts
msg #83876
- Ignore ultra5150 |
12/5/2009 2:10:29 AM
I would like to create filters for some of his strategies on SF if at all possible.
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davesaint86
725 posts
msg #84259
- Ignore davesaint86 |
12/11/2009 6:13:25 PM
Yes. I actually made my first trades using their country etf recommendations. I bought EZA, EWZ, ILF, RSX and EWA on Wednesday right before the market closed. Four closed down 4 days in a row and EZA 5 days in a row. Yesterday I could have sold all for an average of about 1% gain. I sold all of them this morning during the gap up for a total gain of 1.43%.
My goal is to make 1-3% per trade. I did not have to scale into any of these trades. Before I read the book I was having success using TRO's RNR Filter and filtering stocks with a RSI(2) below 10 and then looking at the 2-4% column to see which ones have a high probability of gaining 2-4%. I would look at the charts also to eyeball how long on average once the stock's RSI(2) fell under 10 how long on average did it take to pop. Usually if a stock starts drifting lower at market open I do not buy it. If the futures are positives and the stock goes green right away I buy. I've also had luck buying good companies that miss earnings buy a minimal amount. They usually tank 8-12%. I look for the dead-cat bounces. A lot of them move right up at the open and you can make a quick 1-2% and sometimes they will keep on tanking. I bought LNCE about a month ago and when it open it opened to low volume so I bought it. It drifting down a little and I scaled into the position by buying more shares. The next day I so for a 1.37% gain. I try to keep the losses to no more than 1-3%. My win rate is +70%.
Dave
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chetron
2,817 posts
msg #84265
- Ignore chetron
modified |
12/11/2009 7:01:36 PM
DID CONNORS STEAL THIS CONCEPT FROM GIL BLAKE????????
added rsi(2) thingy....
how about shorting....
ALL TOGETHER.....
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McGiles
1 posts
msg #84287
- Ignore McGiles |
12/11/2009 10:26:05 PM
Chet - can I find details on the filter you put up here?
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #84293
- Ignore BarTune1 |
12/11/2009 11:29:22 PM
I traded 3 ETFs this past week based on low RSI(2) readings primarily - I bought EZA at 54.10 and got out at 55.43, bought OIH at 110.80 and got out at 113.82, still holding some TIP with an average cost of 104.50 - currently at 104.22 ...
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chetron
2,817 posts
msg #84305
- Ignore chetron |
12/12/2009 9:37:22 AM
McGiles, ASK AWAY, I DO BETTER WITH YES/NO QUESTIONS. MULTIPLE ANSWER QUESTIONS AREN'T TOO BAD EITHER, BUT QUESTIONS THAT REQUIRE AN ESSAY RESPONSE, YOU ARE TAKING A RISK. = D
HTH
GLTY
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drew9
171 posts
msg #84315
- Ignore drew9 |
12/12/2009 11:59:41 AM
You may want to look at the Pro Shares and Direxion leveraged funds to trade this strategy. I have a watchlist that uses the leveraged funds choosing one to represent each niche (markets and countries etc). I have found that the many of the currency and commodity type funds do not behave very well and do not hold up well on the W/L%. Once you select a list of funds you can backtest each individually to see how they perform over the last year with your strategy. Just create a watchlist with that one ETF and keep changing the symbol. It is time consuming but I did this about 30 times and only kept those with over an 75% W/L% and those with a high average net profit. TIP is nice but the profit percentage is very small as it hardly moves. My portfolio of those 20 left for long trades now backtests for the last year with an 85% W/L% and average profit of 4.72%. Trades are exited using RSI(2) crossing 75 from below so it is usually only a few days. One thing I will also mention is that the backtest only works for the ETF from the date it became available. Many of these leveraged funds are quite new. If you try and go back a year on one that has been around for 6 months you will get no results. Look at the chart first and put in the date in the backtest that they began trading or there will be no results depending on how long you care to go back.
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