KSK8
561 posts
msg #150424
- Ignore KSK8
modified |
1/20/2020 11:17:52 PM
Dtatu,
This type of trading does not yield an inverse reciprocal, sadly.
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Cheese
1,374 posts
msg #150426
- Ignore Cheese |
1/20/2020 11:49:20 PM
KSK8 and Village Elder,
Please consider including a RISK WARNING when you post your trades (even simulated or paper trades)
e.g. Trading involves risks, including risks of bankrupcy and unlimited losses. All trades and results posted are hypothetical.
Risk warnings may be good for you and for your readers
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Village Elder
231 posts
msg #150428
- Ignore Village Elder |
1/21/2020 7:33:09 AM
Glad that this system is generating discussion, but I think that if you have concerns about shorting stocks as a trading strategy, then don't consider this system for trading. And if I recall correctly, those XIV trades were long XIV, not short, and the Vix went haywire but only up 100% or so which caused the ETN to dissolve. The next day it collapsed back down but the structural damage to the ETN was done and could not be reversed.
Really not a good analogy, but I understand your point about caution.
Has anyone traded this with real funds? If so how have you done so far? That is what I would be interested in hearing about.
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chi-town
44 posts
msg #150429
- Ignore chi-town |
1/21/2020 8:28:19 AM
Just paper so far.
Did notice a big draw down on 1/2/2020 inpx short at 7.20 closed at 14.82 ..that would be a $10,576.00 draw down. If you held next day the high was $29.35..a $30,605.00 draw down in equity. The stock closed at 20.25. Next day it crashed, closed at 9.00. I'm not sure anyone could watch that kind of movement against them. Maybe a 5% stop on all trades would work?
Thanks
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Village Elder
231 posts
msg #150430
- Ignore Village Elder |
1/21/2020 9:17:18 AM
INPX is eliminated from the initial filter based on the addition of the market cap criterion (as suggested by KSK8), so while I see your point I am not wholly convinced that it is a fatal flaw in the system. You will have losing trades, but it is usually more than made up for by the winners. Given that these stocks have already made large moves up (>50% in the last 5 days) the likelihood of another sudden and much larger move is very remote.
As I said previously, if you are not comfortable shorting stocks, and the risk of a large move up which can happen to any system, then do not trade this approach.
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chi-town
44 posts
msg #150433
- Ignore chi-town |
1/21/2020 9:48:09 AM
Got it.
Thanks
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KSK8
561 posts
msg #150434
- Ignore KSK8 |
1/21/2020 10:15:06 AM
Village Elder,
Substitute that market cap parameter with shares outstanding. If you look back at the historical candidates, having that criteria implemented would have dodged a ton of huge short squeezes.
I must say though, this does look like a nifty system, I'm looking forward to seeing your success with it!
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #150439
- Ignore mahkoh |
1/21/2020 2:46:30 PM
One thing I always incorporate in filters like these is:
"add column high 200 week high"
If this column shows a price in the thousands you're dealing with a compulsive reverse splitter. You can be much more confident that it will work out well.
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shillllihs
6,044 posts
msg #150440
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/21/2020 2:54:24 PM
I think the discussion should be how would you set it up to not lose all your stuff when it spikes 400%
Can this be set up in a child's account or some broke persons account that you can trust, or maybe those trading this are mere renters with nothing to lose, these are the best candidates. I don't know anything about this can you file bk or do they garnish wages. I don't recommend trading this way unless it's for peanuts like 1-2% of your portfolio which in essence makes the system obsolete unless of course you have nothing to lose.
This game only works for insiders who can get off the hook.
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dtatu
143 posts
msg #150445
- Ignore dtatu
modified |
1/22/2020 7:33:04 AM
Maybe a Safer Bet( decreasing risk of a severe loss) is:
1. wait for the 1 st reversal day after a New high?( sell on the close a Close lower than the Open)
2. sell on a trade above a previous significant weekly High?( I noticed that some of them take out a significant high before collapsing)
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