StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Random musings of a Virgin(wanna be)Trader<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 8 >>Post Follow-up
xarlor
587 posts
msg #154293
Ignore xarlor
10/12/2020 11:26:07 AM

- SP500 performance 3 months before the votes are cast apparently (100% accuracy since 1984) points to the incumbent winning if it is positive.

Careful with these types of predictions. From 1984 to 2016, you're talking about a sample size of... 9. If we only count elections that include a president running for a second term, the sample size drops to 5.

Interesting, yes. Statistically significant, no.

shillllihs
6,046 posts
msg #154296
Ignore shillllihs
10/12/2020 1:16:11 PM

Yup Mac. On the Spy finance board they were yapping all last week that the market would tank. Some are paid bashers with multiple ids & others are small time option traders and robinhooders and look at the market now.

You can enjoy politics but know that it’s just a show, kind of like when I was a kid and my grandfather would cheer the Bruiser & The Crusher on all star wrestling.

VirginTrader
73 posts
msg #154297
Ignore VirginTrader
10/12/2020 3:29:48 PM

@xarlor
absolutely you are correct. hence, "fun" things to ponder/wonder and look back ...

Talking about "statistically significant" things...
Question for you and anyone visiting the thread: what indicator is your "fave" that produces consistent outcomes for you? TY

For example...TRO seems to like RSI2, snappy likes the Stock 20/40, Mac likes Guppy, etc...






xarlor
587 posts
msg #154298
Ignore xarlor
10/12/2020 5:41:21 PM

what indicator is your "fave" that produces consistent outcomes for you?

For swing trading stocks, I'm partial to Larry Connors' systems. His books are a good read and the systems are highly mechanical. Takes emotion and guesswork out of trading. Enter when signals flash, exit when signals flash.

Swing Trading with Larry Connors

VirginTrader
73 posts
msg #154368
Ignore VirginTrader
10/19/2020 8:55:04 AM

OSTK is down 7% for the week
QQQ is up less than 1% (great Monday and faded out during the week).

Picked up PYPL $204.45 and ZM $559

According to IBD/TIPP polls Biden at 49.5% vs 44.5% for Mr. T. So far, no fireworks!






VirginTrader
73 posts
msg #154421
Ignore VirginTrader
10/24/2020 10:28:29 AM

IBD poll: Biden 49.8 vs Mr T 45.2. No one delivered a knockout blow during the last debate.

No fireworks so far...
OSTK -11%
QQQ - flat
ZM - 8%
PYPL - flat

Feels like a holding pattern till after the election results come out...



Mactheriverrat
3,157 posts
msg #154422
Ignore Mactheriverrat
10/24/2020 1:59:21 PM

Polls mean nothing!


VirginTrader
73 posts
msg #154423
Ignore VirginTrader
10/24/2020 3:56:54 PM

@Mac...we all saw what happened with Clinton vs Trump. Ain't over till it is over!

So far, 3 weeks leading towards the election...the market drifted sideways. you get the bump ups and then it fades.

shillllihs
6,046 posts
msg #154424
Ignore shillllihs
10/24/2020 5:31:09 PM

That’s why I said a month ago that there will be side ways action. Sideways action is good for awhile then you want to mix it up. Could be a crazy move coming this week.

VirginTrader
73 posts
msg #154427
Ignore VirginTrader
10/25/2020 7:49:17 AM

@shils...correct, that sentiment seems prevalent. There must be a ton of $$ sitting on the sidelines. Given the Feds have telegraphed the need to keep key rates close to zero till 2023 (plus $3+ trillion in deficit and treasury debt up to the ying yang), where will these be deployed?

In hindsight,
I would should have sold ZM after the pop instead of thinking it would continue to run (trading it) instead of "liking" the stock. PYPL popped and faded (again, I didn't sell; short of my at least 15% target). 15% loss trigger was what I had in mind.

Interestingly enough UVXY $16.72 hasn't perked up during the recent shake and bake action.



StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Random musings of a Virgin(wanna be)Trader<< 1 2 3 4 5 ... 8 >>Post Follow-up

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