| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · psychological problems after loose | << 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up |
| shelupinin 120 posts msg #36718 - Ignore shelupinin |
7/5/2005 6:08:19 AM to da-net: My english is not perfect since I'm russian and live in russia, nobody teached me english, I'm self-educated, so for such guy my english is almost perfect :) by the way, do you know that your nick "da-net" means "yes-no" in russian language? to corsino and da-net: yes, guys, you right that I'm not experienced trader and have to learn a lot of things but the only way to learn real trading is to trade real money... I had couple of demo accounts with demo money at smartmoney.com and optionsxpress.com and I had success trading those "demo-money", but if you trade real money and it's the last moeny you have then it's much difficult to continue to trade after small lose :( but anyway you right that I have to learn trading better, to use paper trading etc... may be my question is quite stupid but anyway: Is there some strategy wich will show at least 1 USD win in one week but with 99% probability? Alex |
| jclaffee 81 posts msg #36720 - Ignore jclaffee |
7/5/2005 10:35:25 AM Hi, shelupinin. . . IMO, stock picking and stock trading are two entirely separate skills. Every poker player knows the relative value of sets, straights, flushes, etc. and the probability of each those showing up. The consistent winners, though, aren't the players who are always dealt the good cards but, rather, those who fold and raise at the right times. The same sort of thing applies to our trading: it's not difficult to identify a list of stocks of which an overwhelming majority are going to go up -- when they go up, how far they go up and how long they stay up are the critical judgement calls. The "money management" enters the picture to keep ones mistakes in judgement from overwhelming his/her correct judgements. One of the current "gurus" -- Alan Farley, if memory serves -- says that it takes 1000 trades to make a trader. If you have access to "Futures" magazine, the February, 2005, issue contained an article "Walking before you run with system optimization". That article has a section headed "The Development Process" which, I think, gives a good overview of how to create a trading program. www.futuresmag .com Hope you locate a comfort zone in your trading! Jim |
| alf44 2,025 posts msg #36721 - Ignore alf44 |
7/5/2005 12:23:04 PM nice posts here on this thread by both corsino and jclaffee ! Love the Poker analogy...pretty apropos actually. Good stuff ! alf44 :8^) |
| shelupinin 120 posts msg #36729 - Ignore shelupinin |
7/6/2005 5:02:19 AM to jclaffee: I agree that stock picking and stock trading are 2 different things, someone on SF forum already gave analogy with car racing, where ability to trade is a driver's skills and stocks which you trade are car which you drive... And both car and driver are important things to win. But from other hand we have SF backtesting feature which show us past performance of given filter. If I have some filter which has some good ROI and good win/lose ratio for last year then I'm pretty shure that same filter will work today and tomorrow with the same probability of win. I read in some books that technical strategies which worked in the past does'nt work now and vice versa but I don't think that if some filter had good result for last 6 month it will not work today and tomorrow. So you don't need to be good trader, you just have to find good strategy and follow the rules... What is SF filter and backtesting? it is set of rules, so just follow those rules today and you will have same probability to win as you filter had for backtesting period... Am I right? Alex |
| AMSERVE 9 posts msg #36735 - Ignore AMSERVE |
7/6/2005 11:58:11 AM You need to realize that all trading systems/stock screens/filters have one thing in common. THEY ALL WORK - EXCEPT WHEN THEY DONT! That's why dart throwers will occasionally win stock picking contests. Usually the very best you can hope for is being right 50%-55% of the time. The single most important thing you need to accept is that, whether you go long or short, you will be wrong more than you like. How you deal with that fact is what will determine your life-span as a stock trader Rumpled One has mentioned this several times - "Money Management is Key". You need to learn to dump your losers and ride your winners. Don't blindly depend on a trading system to make you money. If you are experiencing a losing streak STOP TRADING for 2-3 days. I use several filters to screen stocks for me but I don't put any money down without checking further into the market. I will add one rule that has made me money fairly consistently in the past - TRADE WITH THE MARKET. That is don't go long on down days or short on up days. It's hard enough to make money without having to overcome market momentum. |
| houghton 29 posts msg #36737 - Ignore houghton |
7/6/2005 12:09:17 PM Shelupin, I’ve read this thread with interest and agree heartily with the advice given so far. Concerning your last post, I believe that the authors of the books you mention are correct and you should pay attention to that. Many have tried to develop systems based on the results of a backtest and failed. Because something worked well in the past, there is no reason to expect it to work today or tomorrow. Backtesting is tricky, at best, since it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to program into simple backtesting software all the variables that exist in the market on the day and at the time the software enters into a trade. The SF backtesting “rules” do not allow you to test those variables. For example, what were the overall market conditions (up? down? sideways?) on that particular day? If market conditions were down and your system says go long, then you will likely be stopped out for a loss. The results of any backtest are often misleading and must be examined carefully, taking into consideration both those trades that failed as well as those that succeeded. In fact, I often learn more from the failures than the successes. A simple example might be if your entry criteria included entering the trade if the price today at some time during the day was higher than the high yesterday. The problem here is that the software, using end of day data, has no way of knowing if the entry price was the opening print of the day and the stock then headed down for the remainder of the day. By examining that failure, you would likely conclude that you would not have entered at the opening under those conditions, or you might have shorted the stock instead. I would like to address your belief that you don’t need to be a good trader and just need a good strategy and follow the rules, but I don’t know where to begin. I hope this helps. Karl |
| rrrbbbggguo 29 posts msg #37771 - Ignore rrrbbbggguo |
9/1/2005 10:29:09 PM Hi, friends: It's bad to loss money when you want to make money, especially at begining you has no much money, no much experience. But I have a graet idea for you: carefully choose you stocks which you fully believe it will go high in near future, but not buy it, instead, short the stock!!! The idea is that most people (95%) loss lots of money when they buy the stock they believe it will up, but market are always down these "Good" stock. So don't be worry, keep try, but in a opposite way to trade!! I must point out here, when you short stock, only choose the one you think it will up, not choose the one you think it will down. Hopely this will help you, and this is my experience and strategy and knowledge from my painful experience! (I have lossed $60000-$80000! but use the opposite way I recover all my loss, amazing!!) |
| glider 59 posts msg #37773 - Ignore glider |
9/2/2005 3:34:15 AM rrrbbbggguo, Interesting take on trading. Is this true? If so, please give some details. How long have you been doing it for? How successful is it and do you also do "normal" trading or just shorting (stocks you think will go up) only. |
| rrrbbbggguo 29 posts msg #37781 - Ignore rrrbbbggguo |
9/2/2005 9:22:45 PM I have been on stock for 6 years, now as getting more understanding the mechanisms of up and down, the opposite trading is much less successful. So most of time now I am doing normal trading. |
| trade_4_money 6 posts msg #37905 - Ignore trade_4_money |
9/9/2005 10:25:02 PM Staging A Comeback Life is often mundane. It can be drudgery, getting up early every morning, dealing with the hassles of everyday life. And when you are worn out and fatigued, facing the trading day can seem like climbing Mount Everest in shorts and a T-shirt. If you're in a slump, it is especially hard to pick yourself up and move forward. The whole world can seem like it's against you. Every little mistake from your past pops into your head, incessantly reminding you of your vulnerability and inadequacy. What can you do? Here's a list of ways you can pick yourself up and persist in the face of setbacks. When you are feeling especially down, it may be useful to forget about your troubles and smile a little while. Allow yourself to engage in a little healthy denial. If you have a serious problem, denial is the last thing you want to do. For example, if you are deep in debt, you better find a new job, and fast, and build up your trading capital. Denying the problem will make matters worse. That said, a little, occasional denial couldn't hurt. If you feel stuck, just pretend that for one day nothing matters. Tell yourself, "I'll worry about my problems tomorrow, but today, I'm just going to enjoy myself and get something done." People who feel beaten are usually especially hard on themselves. They over-interpret a setback and imbue it with personal significance. They start thinking, "I've always been inadequate. This setback reflects my true nature. I'm a loser and I'm never going to change." They attribute failures to a lack of innate talent. It is about them, and only about them, and it can't be changed. This is a very pessimistic outlook. Sometimes, a setback is just bad luck. It has little to do with you. If you want to pick yourself up, think more optimistically. Even if overly positive beliefs are not entirely true, they can help motivate you. Rather than believe that trading requires innate skill, for example, tell yourself, "There is no such thing as a natural born trader. Anyone can learn how to trade profitably, and thus, I can too. The more I practice, the more skillful I'll become." You might also remind yourself that just because you have traded poorly in the recent past, it doesn't mean that you will trade poorly in the future. The past only dictates the future if you let it. It's all right to build up your ego when you feel beaten down as long as you don't get carried away. As long as you don't trade beyond your skill level or trade recklessly, a little bit of extra confidence doesn't hurt. If your confidence is especially low, try to build yourself up. Don't focus on all your past failures. Focus on every big accomplishment you have ever made. Put a positive spin on it. You might think, "Some people never make a single winning trade. The fact that I've traded profitably in the past proves that I can make it if I try hard enough." Allow yourself to bask in the glory of past successes. Again, as long as you don't go too far and start thinking you are one of the "Market Wizards," building up your ego isn't going to hurt you. Another strategy you can use to feel better is to aim for modest goals. For example, if you lower your aspirations temporarily and just try to make a few small trades, you'll increase your chances of success, and when you make a few winning trades, it will immediately lift your spirits. Even the most confident traders can feel inadequate at times. If you are like most traders, you are ambitious. You want to be the best. It's tempting to compare yourself to others, and begin to dwell on how some of your life goals are still on your to do list. Such comparisons don't help you, however. You'll tend to focus on what you don't have instead of what you do have. When you feel stuck and beaten, do whatever you can to feel good about yourself. Even if it takes a little denial, it can help. Beating yourself up and feeling miserable is a complete waste of time. It's better to cultivate an optimistic, fighting spirit. Winning traders are persistent. If you can recover quickly from a setback, you'll increase your changes of mastering the markets. |
| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · psychological problems after loose | << 1 2 3 4 >>Post Follow-up |
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