chip
67 posts
msg #57984
- Ignore chip |
12/11/2007 8:24:27 PM
Please tell me the flaw here .... I looked at the charts for the stocks at or near the top of then scan and drew a chart for 'Up 2%' (on the current day the stock's high was 2% above yesterday's close). There was a correlation, though certainly not one-to-one indicating that when a stock gapped down, it's high never made it to the 2% above yesterday's close.
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chip
67 posts
msg #57985
- Ignore chip |
12/11/2007 8:31:53 PM
1 more thing ... I also added columns for 40, 10, and 5 day intervals, thinking that a stock with a fairly large ratio over a longer interval which was nearing (or at) a 1:1 ratio in shorter intervals might be a stronger bet to actually make the gain.
Sure, this is trading and all that matters is profit but I am sure there are many more assumptions that I could make leading to loss, than those I could make leading to profit. No?
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #57987
- Ignore TheRumpledOne
modified |
12/11/2007 9:55:02 PM
Chip:
Flaw? No flaw.
I am really not sure what you are asking.
Remember, trading is a GUESSING GAME. No one knows what is going to happen. If they did, they would own it all and the markets would cease to exist.
It is easier to help when you post your filter and/or charts.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #57990
- Ignore EWZuber |
12/12/2007 12:35:32 AM
Don't know that I'd call it a guessing game. I have found that if one analyses the cycles, their coorelations with each other and their support/resistance areas, very often it can be seen before-hand right where a stock is going.
Guessing implies that you don't have enough information or knowledge to support your belief.
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #57991
- Ignore nikoschopen |
12/12/2007 2:15:33 AM
In another word, it's all about risk and reward!
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #57998
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/12/2007 9:24:09 AM
"Guessing implies that you don't have enough information or knowledge to support your belief."
It's a matter of symantics or the "definition" game.
If you DO NOT KNOW, then, to me, it's a guess.
On a multiple choice test, either you KNOW the answer or you venture a guess.
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #58001
- Ignore nikoschopen |
12/12/2007 11:34:20 AM
It's surprising to hear a guy (Monsieur TRO in this case) who touts his "stat" filters as the next best thing to Viagra but then claims that trading is merely a guessing game. Got probability? LOL
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chip
67 posts
msg #58032
- Ignore chip |
12/12/2007 6:56:52 PM
Today I spotted the potential 'flaw'.... yesterday's close happened yesterday. I picked several from the top of the scan and put them on a watch list. This morning it looked like all but 1 had went ballistic, but looking closer they had gapped up. They could not be bought at yesterday's close until much later in the day (if even then) when they were trending down toward that level.
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #58033
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/12/2007 7:18:57 PM
"It's surprising to hear a guy (Monsieur TRO in this case) who touts his "stat" filters as the next best thing to Viagra but then claims that trading is merely a guessing game. Got probability? LOL"
Niko the "filters" are not filters as so much as they are "displays" or reports.
No matter what filter you use, you still have to trade the stock.
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #58034
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/12/2007 7:20:19 PM
"Today I spotted the potential 'flaw'.... yesterday's close happened yesterday. I picked several from the top of the scan and put them on a watch list. This morning it looked like all but 1 had went ballistic, but looking closer they had gapped up. They could not be bought at yesterday's close until much later in the day (if even then) when they were trending down toward that level. "
Chip, no "flaw". Gaps are part of trading. The market gapped up today.
Just remember, the gains shown on my filter are from OPEN to HIGH and NOT the previous close to high.
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