mika
131 posts
msg #29786
- Ignore mika |
11/10/2003 9:05:41 PM
I sold everything. I don't like to buy/sell piecemeal. I prefer to move on to other stocks once I get what I want. I sold CRDM at 1.19 today. Couldn't care less if it goes to 1.50. That's not how play..
|
EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29790
- Ignore EWZuber |
11/11/2003 3:52:35 AM
mika
I would like to show you a method for getting a lot more out of your trades without guess work.
If you bring up a 1 day 5 minute candlestick or bar chart of CRDM, and draw a line at the beginning of the run starting from the low at 12:35 @ $1.15 and bring it up across the low of the next 4 candlesticks. The trendline lasts touches a candlestick bottom ( support ) at 1:00 @ $1.31.
Here draw a second line, where this trendline is broken. It will be horizontal and toward the right side of the chart.
This is the sell signal line. When price drops below this line then it is highly likely that a change in the TREND is happening.
The next candlestick at 1:05 breaks this supporting trendline drawn at $1.31.
So a sell just below this level at, say, $1.30 ~ $1.28 would have been good. With this method we miss only about 5 cents of the move or 4% of a 20% move.
Earlier it looked like the trendline break was at $1.28 but I wasn't using an expanded scale chart.
I have found this approach to work very well. Good luck
|
mika
131 posts
msg #29812
- Ignore mika |
11/11/2003 5:48:54 PM
Z,
Is 30 min enough time to make a trend? Like you mentioned earlier there are so many undercurrents guiding price movement, and some conflicting and canceling each other. Is adding another layer of complexity really worth it? Avery has posted repeatedly the value of compounding returns. And that's the game I play. I know already from the little experience I have what are reasonable return to assume for a given time frame, and that's how I play the game. In my case, I aim for 8~16 percent a week. Sure it's always nice to get more, but we all play the game of odds, and recognize what are reasonable odds.
Anyway, after that little speech, I'm still very interested in your trend line method and eager try it out. :) Z, if you have an instant chat app like MSN messenger, maybe you could FTP me such a chart. From my vantage point half an hour just seems too compressed. But what do I know. :)
|
EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29813
- Ignore EWZuber |
11/11/2003 6:17:21 PM
mika
I was pointing out is that if you were ready to close the position as you did at $1.19 then you were ready to use trendlines to do the job.
Had you used the trendline method you would have done much better and made an additional 9% on the trade.
I do not consider this complex at all. From my viewpoint it is one of the simplest and most reliable ways to enter and exit a position.
Yes a half hour is easily enough to make a trend and even much shorter periods can be traded like this. I have successfully used trendlines over as little as a few minutes on 1 minute charts with daytrades.
If you go back and draw those lines as I suggested, that will give you a good idea where I am coming from. Then check out stochastics and see if they confirm the change of the trend.
In this case they do. Both end of day and Hourly charts had a fast line convergence and cross below the slow line when the trendline was broken. Also the other key was the bounce down off of resistance at $1.34 confirming it as resistance.
So you had 4 indicators ( Trendline violation, 2 seperate stochastics periodicitiy -xover and confirmation of resistance ) indicating that this was the top of the move for a while.
I don't have any instant messaging anymore. Had a real bad experience with it because it left me open to hackers. They messed with my computer while I was trading and it was not good.
|
EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29815
- Ignore EWZuber |
11/11/2003 10:06:24 PM
mika
also wanted to mention that it is a viable strategy to find resistance on the daily chart, in this case $1.34, and put a 'limit sell' just a tad below this level. This way even if the stock meets this high only temporarily you will probably get an execution.
If you don't then there is always the option to sell at trendline violation.
|
mika
131 posts
msg #29830
- Ignore mika |
11/12/2003 7:03:42 PM
Thanks Z.
I'd really appreciate it if you sent me a couple of charts with the trend lines drawn, to have a look at and study. I'll post my email so you can just send em over that way.
email: mika_mk2001(at)yahoo.com
PS,
DSLN had a nice pop in volume today..
|
EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29837
- Ignore EWZuber |
11/13/2003 9:34:29 AM
mika
I'm running on a shoestring here. Only running on a small partition thats left operating on my hard drive. The rest has cratered. I bought a new HD and took it to a friend and he loaded it all up but put in Windows XL. I needed Win 2000. So a lot of my periferals won't run on that. Consequently I have barely enough room on the existing HD to run the OS. No room for a JPG program to send charts. Sorry. I may just wipe the new HD and start over. It s a WDC 80Gig which will be nice.
|
EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29839
- Ignore EWZuber |
11/13/2003 11:53:23 AM
It's been said that after market announcements can be predicted by regular session activity. I agree that sometimes that is true when there is insider trading. But it is not a reliable indicator. An excellent example would be WFMI. On Tues and Wed WFMI dropped almost 5% on fear surrounding the upcoming earings announcement. The volume on Wed. was huge at about 4X ADV with a 4% drop at the intraday low.
However earnings came in great and the stock gapped up this morning and is up 8% now on greater than 4X ADV.
So it seems as long as there is no illegal activity it is impossible to tell.
|
mika
131 posts
msg #29842
- Ignore mika |
11/13/2003 1:34:04 PM
?
|
mika
131 posts
msg #29843
- Ignore mika |
11/13/2003 1:40:45 PM
Somebody bought alot of shares at around 0.8~0.9/share. Chances are they will not be happy until they get at least a 30% return. Now if you don't mind paying the the 50% premium compared to what I paid for DSLN, there's still a very good chance that you will recoop a 40% profit. This one wants to go above a dollar. One way or another it will. No technicals here, just intuition.
|