markcrisp
187 posts
msg #32817
- Ignore markcrisp |
8/11/2004 1:26:58 PM
Hi,
I am looking for a short term trading method. 10 - 15 days+ (not day trading or less than 5 days). Low priced stocks $1 to $5 range.Long only. I am willing to take 50% swings in equity in order to make 20%+ per month. i.e I can easily afford to lose this money
I've read soooo many posts (great info.) but which filter woulf fit this method?
I need a proven method..not theory. Can you help?
Thank you
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robdavis
69 posts
msg #32820
- Ignore robdavis |
8/11/2004 8:01:56 PM
Hi Mark,
> I am looking for a short term trading method. 10 - 15 days+ (not day trading or less than 5 days). Low priced stocks $1 to $5 range.
These parts are the easiest. Because you can write your own script. Because you can filter stocks for price. And because you can get in and out of stocks in a 10-15 day time frame, very easily, even if you're traveling, and far away from home.
> Long only.
Long is great, if your time frame is 10+ years, but long can be a challenge and source of frustration if the market continues to fall (slowly and gradually) in the next 12-24 months.
> I am willing to take 50% swings in equity in order to make 20%+ per month. i.e I can easily afford to lose this money
That is good. It is good that you do not "play" the market with grocery or rent money.
> I've read soooo many posts (great info.) but which filter woulf fit this method?
> I need a proven method..not theory. Can you help?
Try a filter(s) with the "Muddy Method". Muddy worked real well during the last (small) boom from approx. 3/03 to 1/04. You need to understand that no filter has been and will ever be proven in full, and certainly no filter has been proven to everyone's satisfaction. The best filters are those with the best back test results, but even if their back test results are promising, their use has not been proven for any future use. Why? Because the trend of the overall market can change overnight. Or because, when you pick a stock, your specific stock's market trend, too, can change. In other words, anything and everything can happen in any 10-15 day cycle (in the future).
Also, consider diversification and sound money management.
I hope this helps.
Rob
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markcrisp
187 posts
msg #32824
- Ignore markcrisp |
8/12/2004 5:16:43 AM
Hi rob,
Yes I am a very experienced trade in higher priced momentum stocks... but as I see the market now into the 15 year cy.clical bear amrekt I need to start looking for alternate ways to make $$$'s
Try a filter(s) with the "Muddy Method".
Where is this method/ filter?
Thank you
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cegis
235 posts
msg #32828
- Ignore cegis |
8/12/2004 9:44:17 AM
Mark,
The muddy method is described in detail at the Yahoo Group StockFetcher: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/StockFetcher . Also, you can search the SF forums for "muddy", and a lot of posts will come up.
I haven't followed Muddy lately. It's a "rebound play", so I'm not sure how well it does in sideways/down markets, as the stocks it finds have been declining recently. This is just a "gut feel", though, so I may be outta da ballpark (read "wrong").
Another way to play a down market without actually "shorting" stocks are put options. This is no panacea, though, as there are a lot of additional "issues" with options trading. Option Spreads (bear call credit spread or bear put debit spread) is another way, and they limit down side, too. Since you seem willing to accept some risk, I though I'd mention these.
And I'll agree with Rob: Money management (my nemisis, I admit) is the KEY to success. Keep losses small, and the rest will work out.
HTH,
C
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markcrisp
187 posts
msg #32829
- Ignore markcrisp |
8/12/2004 9:47:14 AM
OK so what short systems are worth trading for a quick 10 -20 day move?
I am familiar with options, futures,currencies, spreads,etc.... I've been around a bit.
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chessnut1
58 posts
msg #32830
- Ignore chessnut1 |
8/12/2004 11:39:40 AM
Hi Mark
As far as your interest in the Muddy Method goes, I have followed it since its inception over a year ago and can attest to the fact that it can do remarkably well in down and sideways markets. In these markets you may need to take your profits earlier than if in a bull market. But the daily profits are definitely there for the taking. If you look at the % Gainers list over the past month, the lion's share have been what we call "muddy" stocks.
I'd suggest that you check out the site at:
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/stockfetcher/
You will notice there are more posts and files than you can possibly read in a day, so I suggest you read files in the file section and also two posts.
The one post is by me to newcomers (msg # 3874). The only thing I'd alter from that post back then is that there are now more than just the 2 primary types of plays that we follow, and also I wrote that we "enter and wait for the dawn" which may give the impression that we enter stocks when they are "at bottom" and try to catch falling knives. But that's not what I meant at all by that phrase, just that the stocks are bottom feeder types. We always wait for "green," or "for the first light of dawn"] before entering.
The 2nd message, and by far more important, is msg # 2789, posted by "Muddy" himself. It explains how he trades and the filters he uses. He too might add footnotes today to that post, but he will tell you all about that if you post or email him.
Just talk to "Muddy" himself and get the scoop straight from him. He is an experienced trader of nearly 40 years and very willing to share his time and expertise in the methods he uses. He loves talking stocks.
Happy trading!
--BJ
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #38456
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/14/2005 4:42:51 PM
http://www.stressfreetrading.com/shorting_stocks.htm
Stocks > $25 that have doubled in the past year.
Volume (10) > 500,000
Stock price has decreased more than 10% in the past 1 week
Very interesting...
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