Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #85721
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/7/2010 12:14:38 PM
THAT is exactly my dilemma.
My charts tell me when to buy.
But I recently got 2 false sell signals that still bother me ... one on STEC, the other on TIE.
Anyone have a "fool-proof" sell signal?
:>)
+++++++++++
My thinking is to use a trailing stop set at the lowest low of the past 5 days, or a similar timeframe depending on the trade. That way you keep in the momentum but get out once it turns. You might miss a subsequent move up, but more often then not you miss a big move down that would erase your profit.
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choymi8828
47 posts
msg #85731
- Ignore choymi8828 |
1/7/2010 1:09:57 PM
Chetron/Kevin or Anybody:
In the following code for M4M breakout filter:
>>>
set{d5,atr(5)/ma(5)}
set{dd5,d5*100}
add column dd5
>>>
What is the point in including column dd5 and how do we use it ?
Thanks.
Mike
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #85737
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/7/2010 1:42:45 PM
I think it is a measure of the volatility of the stock price relative to its moving average - in prior filters suggested by M4M, using daily or weekly atr(8)/MA(8) (pro in this filter) was used to select for stocks that had the potential for large upward moves.
Try adding the line "and sort on column 5 descending". This should rank the filtered stocks from highest ddr5 score to lowest. Offset a few days and see if it makes for better trades (but honestly, this filter has pulled out some pretty impressive stock moves regardless of how they are ranked).
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #85740
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/7/2010 1:47:07 PM
Offest this filter to 12/3/09 (31 days) to see what I mean about pulling out some impressive trades.
Actually use any day offest and it probably beats whatever system you are currently using. My only challenge is to figure out when the best exit timing is.
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duke56468
683 posts
msg #85760
- Ignore duke56468 |
1/7/2010 4:24:08 PM
Is it possible to post a chart or image from another source to SF?
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MARY4MONEY
806 posts
msg #85793
- Ignore MARY4MONEY |
1/8/2010 2:32:58 AM
what you do is watch the daily rsi(2) and most of these will get >90 fast and most to >98-99%-- this is where the linear regression lines on thinkorswim.com are so important on the regular and profit charts on there-you just set up rsi-2 macd 2 3 1 with a 100 period linear regression-- most strong stocks will peak out at >99% hit the top lr at the same time- this is why the macd is so important- as you near a top it will start showing a neg divergence on the daily 2 and 1 hour graphs- reverse on bottoms--you also want to check the buying and selling pressure by using advfn.com total buy and sell volume- on a stocks move up it will stay to the buy side volume being higher than the sell side total volume--lets look at stec s big move-- you have to read all you macd and rsi-2 readings live as they are happening--stec ran down from 14-11$ flat lining the daily rsi-2 to about 0 on 12-13-09- the weekly was about the same-- your buy signal was when on 12-14-09 about mid day it reversed up on the daily rsi-2 and gave a very strong pos divergence on the 30-60-120 minute and daily at about 11.80$-so this is where i bought the 13-18 jan calls-you saw on here--also at the bottom we had a positive buying reversal the daily 1 and 2 hour macd 2 3 1-also have a very strong pos divergence- the daily crossed above the 0 line at about 11.90$- at the top at 17$ where the daily rsi-2 was at 99.98%(talk about a strong stock) it started showing a big negative divegence on the 1 and 2 hours macd and rsi-2- the sell signal- so here i sold 80% of my options and let the rest ride on 12-29-09---then iwaited for the next 1-2 hour bottom reversal--this happened on 12-31-09--went to a low of 15.80 reversed up got my rsi and macd pos divergence at about 16.10--here i bought the 18-22 jan calls-- the next 2 trading days it ran up to 20 hitting the top lr line--and gave a negative divergwence at 19.75- where i sold all my calls-now today on 1-7-09 it went to a low of 17.80 and the 1-2 hour macd and rsi gave a buy near the close at 17.90- so i bought the 20-21 jan calls-this is all you do to find both tops and bottoms with laser accuracy-plus you look at the buy and sell volume to at bottoms for it to reverse-when you are nearing a top or bottom using this system- you neeed to staetr tracking the difference between the 2 and write it on a piece of paper to refer to--on today the selling spread tigtened up on stec-same this in reverse at tops-boy i wish we just had an indicator on advfn.com to track this-they do have 2 but they arent very accurate-we need to track the spread or difference in the pos and neg volume- im trying to get them to do that-hopefully i will suceed-this may be very confusing to some- just set up thinkorswim charts and study the above info--
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #85817
- Ignore gmg733 |
1/8/2010 12:37:37 PM
If you want to know entries and exits, simply read M4Ms prior messages. I've been studying and decoding his post for a while now and he mentions watching the RSI(2) and MACD divergence for entry and exits. Look at MACD(2,3,1) and it is so accurate. No need for oscillators, just use MACD(2,3,1). Put RSI(2) and MACD(2,3,1) on your charts and look at the charts.
The post are like puzzles, you have to piece them all together. I'm still decoding, but find the work fascinating.
I have two other trading methods to nail down before I get to this one full bore. So I don't have a lot of details yet on any type of system.
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richo
74 posts
msg #85825
- Ignore richo |
1/8/2010 5:16:01 PM
In regard to the MACD (2,3,1) which is the smoothing, fast and slow ?
Rich
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #85826
- Ignore gmg733 |
1/8/2010 6:11:27 PM
2 is MA1, 3 is MA2 and 1 is the smooth
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adamadabek
8 posts
msg #86054
- Ignore adamadabek |
1/12/2010 6:53:50 PM
Any other suggestions on when to exit?
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