| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · bollinger bands | << 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 ... 23 >>Post Follow-up |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26792 - Ignore wallman |
6/8/2003 6:32:28 PM HI BOB, thanks for the input,the reason i asked the mutual fund ? is that by bumping the volume down to 50000 and adding "and stock is optionable" pulls up awesome backtest numbers,it seems to get the stocks that are the highest % gainers of the highest % gainers of the basic filter, maybe coincidence, but i'm thinking that mutuals may be heavy into these optionable stocks for some reason,it just seems like an abnormally high % of these stocks also stay running longer than the basic filter stocks,since mutual funds tend to hold longer than individual investers and add blocks of these stocks every week or so i'm thinking this could be a reason,for instance on a backtest of march 12, 60 days ago as of today,there was 41 gainers and 3 losers,the amazing thing to me though was that of those 41 gainers,36 were over 40%,many of these had steady weekly rises which could indicate steady block buying from mutual funds,i will investigate this further and if i find out anything will post but it looks real interesting right now.......GOOD LUCK,MUDDY |
| defghca 150 posts msg #26794 - Ignore defghca |
6/8/2003 8:17:11 PM wallman i tought we were posting on bollinger2 and closing down this one |
| ig0r 51 posts msg #26795 - Ignore ig0r |
6/8/2003 8:54:29 PM doesn't really matter anymore, it's easier to get to the last page of a thread now with the tabs |
| dmindy 42 posts msg #26800 - Ignore dmindy |
6/9/2003 10:56:21 AM Hi all. Just a quick question, as I want to make sure I'm doing everything ok. I realize the market in general is down today but I didn't get any candidates that met the "Open green, and are green at 9:50" rule. Did anyone have better luck evaluation the candidates from Friday? Thanks! Doug |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26805 - Ignore wallman |
6/9/2003 8:05:53 PM HI DOUG,i'll try to describe what i saw at open and at 9:45(time that i use),this is with a 50,000 bumpdown from fridays filter,VLNC up .05 at open - red 9:45(no play), DVI up .03 at open - even at 9:45(no play then,but could wait), RNBO up .15 at open - up .01(ask +.07 so up .08)at 9:45 (play), IST and GTSI red all the way(no play), FMXI up .07 at open - up .06 at 9:45(no play for me as it was 5% up , over my 3% rule)and a failure from thursday FIBR, up .04 at open - up .03 at 9;45 (play)......of course someone may have seen something a little different depending on the exact time,tick, that they saw but this should give you an idea of how it went today, RNBO a play around +.08, FIBR a play around +.03, DVI possible if you needed 3 stocks and you waited for green, FMXI a play if you needed a 3rd or 4th stock and you either accept a 5% entry or you waited for a pullback but still to the upside.....GOOD LUCK,MUDDY |
| sooquiet 3 posts msg #26807 - Ignore sooquiet |
6/9/2003 9:19:13 PM Muddy.....First of all, thanks for the screen. I can honestly say that your method has both worked for me financially as well as helped me spend more time at the office doing what I'm supposed to be doing instead of glued to the computer all day watching every stock tick. Now for the question....I know that you have related in the past that some of the better movers come from previous days' failures. I have also found that to be the case at times. However, do you regularly monitor good candidates that failed for days waiting for a green move or do you generally only do so when there are no good candidates in the current screen? I find myself sometimes watching previous failures more then current candidates, and after a few days I may be watching more previous failures for a turn then I am current prospects. I guess what I'm wondering is when do you prefer previous failures that turn green over current prospects? Thanks......Steve |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26810 - Ignore wallman |
6/9/2003 11:34:10 PM HI STEVE,glad to hear it's working well for you,i like the fact also that i'm basically done by 10AM,if i know i don't need a play for that day i don't even have to watch the market at all.....i will always go back 1 day to look for failures,most times that's all as i found the same thing as you,watching them more than current canidates,if todays screen pulls up nothing of interest then i will go back a few more days, i rate the failures on the same level as current canidates,though i could be wrong here as i have found them to be pretty strong but right now for me i'll leave it the way i do it,but if you feel otherwise you could very well be right,one thing i do do with the failures though is i don't require BOTH tail and volume to look for green on open,just 1 seems to do just fine,as i feel being a failure makes up for the lack of one of those requirements,hope that's clear,but of course you check it out,as you must be comfortable with any method you trade to make it work best....GOOD LUCK, MUDDY |
| dmindy 42 posts msg #26812 - Ignore dmindy |
6/10/2003 1:26:56 AM Hey thanks Muddy that helps a lot. I didn't even bother to go look at the previous day's failures, or how the bid/ask was effecting things. Both great ideas that seem pretty obvious now that someone else has said it. :) In any case I wasn't at all disappointed as I think's a good thing if a "system" is complete enough to tell you when to stay the heck out of the market for a day. :) I just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything. Turn out I was! Thanks for the play by play, very helpful! Thanks again! Doug |
| wallman 299 posts msg #26813 - Ignore wallman |
6/10/2003 6:56:39 AM HI DOUG,you're welcome, glad that helped,your attitude that you weren't dissapointed with a "no play" day is exactually what one should have with this method as there seems to be many good plays that come along,just some days there are none,that's the importance of the safety net of entering on green,it keeps you out of alot of losing trades,the ones that open red and continue down,as i've said before if you are playing ANY bottomfishing method IMO you should always wait for some kind of move up to begin,with the bb method i feel that alot of the downside has already been removed from these stocks,especially ones that are hovering around their 52 week lows,therefor a "running start" on these stocks gives you a very good edge,i know alot of folks are concerned with a overall market turndown ,of course this is no guarantee,but i do know that on a backtest of this filter on the most recent one of jan to march,the enter on green rule kept you out of a whole bunch of losing trades that you see on a backtest of this filter,one thing that i may not have mentioned is that once you think you have identified a market turndown,it is advisable to push your enter on green time up to 10 a.m or even beyond,as late as 10:30 or whatever you feel comfortable with,after some time you should start to get your own feel with this method,again you need patience,you'll see some that get away and run on you but just try to forget it,in times like those it's much better to play it safe than be sorry,just try to keep in mind that when the market does finally turn back up that's when you'll make your good $,so far just from my experiance you shouldn't have too much trouble finding good , solid,plays in a decent to good market,so always try to keep that in mind,also during that time you always want to try to look at previous failures from as far back as 3 days a little harder,looking for say 5 down days in a row,which i felt during that time gave me an extra edge as it increased the odds of a continued move up once we see green at an open,again nothing is for sure in the markets but if you try to stack the odds as much as possible on your side you should come through those times fine,ready to strike when the markets reverse back up....GOOD LUCK,MUDDY |
| todddunning 31 posts msg #26820 - Ignore todddunning |
6/11/2003 1:59:31 PM Hey Muddy let me add my thanks - I'm still struggling with ENI buy from June 5 but assumed I'd have to scrape a few stops before it all gels. You made a signifigant point June 8 that may have gotten lost in the shuffle; adding optionable stocks to the filter, your theory being the mutuals stayed with them much longer, possibly adding blocks over time. So you tested 41, and 36 went over 40% over time - truly amazing. So I made: SHOW STOCKS WHERE CLOSE HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS AND AVERAGE VOLUME(90) IS ABOVE 50,000 AND CLOSE PRICE IS BETWEEN 1 AND 10 AND PRICE TOUCHED LOWER BOLLINGER BAND(20) AND STOCK IS OPTIONABLE I got MIR, DYN CGO to papertrade June 11. Only CGO opened green but was at least holding midday. So now to jump into your shoes Muddy, the next day, would you filter a new set, or would you see how MIR and DYN open and then move? Or both? |
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