| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · RSI(2) - The Little Indicator That Could | << 1 2 3 4 5 ... 26 >>Post Follow-up |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29344 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/17/2003 12:45:54 AM I think it's great that the RSI(2) helped you find this one. I'd like to point out that there were other indicators at work here that were also indicating a move higher. The successful test of the 50 DMA & the stochastic fast line/slow line convergence on 10/13. A trendline drawn from the high of 10/2 across the high of 10/7 & 10/9 and the bounce up off that trendline when it hit the 4 HR.MA which was supporting the stock at 10:45 AM this morning. A buy at this point would have allowed for the majority of the move or 12.3%without having the money sitting for 3 days prior. Just an alternative viewpoint. |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29345 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/17/2003 12:07:32 PM Here are some basic truths that folks need to consider with every filter: Anyone can "find" a stock after it has gone up. None of the "my filter found THIS!!" messages mention the number of hits that went down instead of up or moved not all, or because of the low price, could not be bought at the specified penny because of MM action. This in part explains the really horrid performance of RSI(2) on Koliga.com http://www.koliga.com/forum/index.php?c=5 Those that are so smart that they never have to paper trade miss out on a lot of these facts since they never really get to watch a filter perform in real life. Sure, the answer is "I'm the greatest trader and its my entry points that make the difference" Fine, I can accept that. Those kinds of folks don't need filters, they just take a random assortment of stocks and then pick the winner. They are a truly admirable group of people. If you are one of them, you don't need to bother with filters. If you can't pick that 1 winner out of 10 or so stocks like some folks claim they do all the time, then you need a filter that gives you more hits than misses. It's pointless to rave about one find if you can't point out that your filter does this on so many percent of the hits. Any filter at some point can find the 100% or better gainer. That means nothing. Any chart indicator can find a winner. But no one can point to one indicator that wins all the time. I can invent a winning scenario for any chart, but what I can't do is make that scenario work all of the time in real life. What actually counts is performance over time. Unless you have the bucks of Buffet or Gates you are going to have to paper trade your butt off in order to find the 2 or 3 filters that perform over time. The question for the trader is not "did your filter find such and such stock" That is pointless. The question for the trader is "how much did your filter gain or lose in actual trading last month?" Those that don't paper trade can't answer that. Using the SF date offset can't answer that either because it will give you daily hits, but you will be stuck with 5 or so stocks for days, so that is not a realistic test. Anyone that has bought a basket of hits from any filter, or paper traded those hits knows that. |
| knowsenough 54 posts msg #29346 - Ignore knowsenough |
10/17/2003 1:43:27 PM JoeGrossinger you've got it pegged....... Filters can only lead you to water.....they can't make you drink. Here is my ideal filter......... Show me stocks where the slope of the revenue increased the last 6 quarters and the latest 10Q's income from operations is 25% higher than previous and the bollinger width(20) is tighter than a frogs behind at 500' below sealevel and RSI dictates I remove myself from the PC and occasionally take a bath and do not sort because I only want three hits, but discard if address reads Bermuda........ |
| jthehut 124 posts msg #29347 - Ignore jthehut |
10/17/2003 3:02:24 PM What type of frog? This is important for my filter! (John Bollinger said so!) M |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29348 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/17/2003 3:15:00 PM I ran that filter and to my astonishment lost no money! I think it's the really tight BB band that does it. Great work! ROFLMAO! |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29349 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/17/2003 3:20:47 PM Hey! I hope you don't have a copyright on that because if you do a 5 day date adjust it hits on ADOT with over 200% gain for the week!!! Do a month date adjust and it hits on one stock with over 1800% gain!!! This is the best filter bar none. It should go into the SF Hall of Fame. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29351 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/17/2003 5:08:15 PM Paper trading is OK if you have no trading system that is statistically successful or if you're experimenting with a new system. However trading on simulators is a much more educational and realistic method of learning, IMO. If you do have a statistically successful system then the filter can be used just as a means to narrow the field so your time spent doing technical analysis of charts can be applied more efficiently. So even the best traders can and do use filters to make life easier. For instance if one is looking for a stock that is breaking trendline resistance and is starting accumulation then a good filter will sort through thousands of stocks and present the trader with a handful that meet the traders basic criteria. The job of sorting by hand is then made a much more managable task. If Avery can get his RSI(2) filter to narrow the field for him then more power to him. Is his filter 'the best'? Maybe for him it is. Ever see commercials where they all claim to be the best? They can do this legally because 'best' is subjective not absolute. The fact that Avery was able to pull SNUS out of his returns and single it out as a candidate for a good move gives tentative evidence that he has the knowlege to do this. If he can do this consistently then that would lend further creedence that his system works for him. For purposes of making money it seems whether he can do this or not should only matter to him, IMO. I guess some use filters to do the TA for them and then buy a bunch of returns that come up. Thats also fine if it works for you. I can not speak for anyone else but for me the filter is not the end it is just a part of the means. So for everyone there are different ways and means to get where they are going. |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29352 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/17/2003 5:10:44 PM Well, if you trade with simulators then testing with simulators is the way to go - no doubt about it. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29353 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/17/2003 6:15:25 PM I don't use simulators anymore although I did for about 3 years just like I was trading the market. Getting up every morning at 5:00 AM doing trades of various time frames from daytrading to holding for several weeks. Portfolio values and trading results are calculated at the end of every day. This makes facing your long term success or lack of it inescapable. After a system was established I got an account at Etrade and took what I had learned to the market. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #29354 - Ignore EWZuber |
10/17/2003 10:29:46 PM Sims are not stand alone programs. They are a trading platform and many are complete with stop, limit, stop limit, short sell and options trading that are tied directly into 20 minute delayed or real time quotes. They have pages that let you know if your trade was filled and at what price. You start with a certain amount of money in a margin account. If the quantity you want is not available at the price you want you will either get a partial fill or none at all. Commissions are automatically calculated into the transaction. You get all the real life complications of ISP disconnects, outages and transaction problems. I can't see how it could get much more real without using real money in actual positions. |
| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · RSI(2) - The Little Indicator That Could | << 1 2 3 4 5 ... 26 >>Post Follow-up |
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