jackmack
334 posts
msg #102520
- Ignore jackmack |
8/31/2011 1:45:44 PM
Kevin - using guru_traders filter from above (yours just tweaked I assume) - what if no new buy signal has not been given (a new #1 has not come up) - does one just sit on the side lines? How do you enter if your just starting out and we now have months end? I look forward to your reply.
Thank you
jackmack
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #102521
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/31/2011 1:59:20 PM
Risk versus return - it's your call. Personally, I would be fine putting money into BND since the downside risk is small.
GLD may give you a better return if things turn south, but you're also risking a larger loss if a QE3 happens.
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jackmack
334 posts
msg #102522
- Ignore jackmack |
8/31/2011 2:20:35 PM
Got it - but if you were using the 8 ETF filter - then it would be TLT or AGG?
Thought this was going to be simple. Maybe it's just me trying to over complicate things (I have a nasty habit of doing that) :-).
Thanks again
jackmack
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jackmack
334 posts
msg #102524
- Ignore jackmack |
8/31/2011 3:08:06 PM
gmoney - have you been using this filter or the ETFreplay.com site?
How has it been going?
Let me know when you get the chance.
Thanks
jackmack
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jackmack
334 posts
msg #102650
- Ignore jackmack |
9/21/2011 5:16:47 PM
Kevin_in_GA
Kevin - so if one were to use the filter on pg25 of this thread with the 8 ETF's how does one get the signal to enter
if just starting to use the filter? Meaning if TLT never changes over lets say the next 8 weeks and one were using the
filter but waiting for a signal to buy in they would miss on the action in TLT - so when would one start using the filter
and when would they enter?
Thank you
jackmack
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #102661
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/22/2011 1:35:52 PM
Jackmack:
Same message as I gave you on 8/31 - you can jump in at any time and ride whatever is left of that wave, but you accept the fact that it might be riskier than waiting for the next signal.
I still think that you will be safest in bonds - low downside risk and what you might forfeit would be upside potential if the market makes a big move.
BTW, since giving you this same advice on 8/31, the SPY is down almost 7.5% while BND is up 1.2%. Back then the gap in 14 week performance was 10.6% - now it is over 14%.
It is highly unlikely that the market will be able to make up that much ground over the next few weeks, so if you are waiting for the signal I would not expect a change in leadership for at least another month.
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saico
59 posts
msg #102672
- Ignore saico |
9/23/2011 6:46:44 AM
Hi Kevin, the filter posted on page 28 with a weekly rotation is the final edition for the moment, right?
Thanks
saico
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wkloss
231 posts
msg #102708
- Ignore wkloss |
9/25/2011 11:00:27 AM
Kevin,
Have recent results caused you to give more thought to testing with a stop loss or is this just the cost of enduring the bad to get to the really good results this system usually produces?
Bill
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #102709
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/25/2011 4:15:14 PM
Saico:
Yes, the last filter I posted is the one I suggest using. The 8 ETF modification might work well also, but the 14 week lookback period was developed with only SPY, IWM, EFA and BND.
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jackmack
334 posts
msg #102723
- Ignore jackmack |
9/26/2011 12:14:40 PM
Thank you Kevin - I have still been in cash as I was wanting to make sure I was using the system correct so all is well.
Thank you again - I do remember your post from August - I just was not sure if one was to "wait" for a new signal before getting in - I now have my answer.
Thanks again - cheers
jackmack
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