rrochon
117 posts
msg #27069
- Ignore rrochon |
6/25/2003 8:17:50 PM
Why does Holygrail continue to talk about his wonderful trading systems, but will not answer any questions about his filters? Is he trying to get us interested so he can lead us to a site where he either sells something or maybe a pump and dump scheme where he buys quantities of penny stocks, recommends them and then dumps them as soon as we drive up the price?
We are interested in exchanging filters here (Note the title of the board) but if they are going to do us any good, we need exact wording on them, not some vague reference to technical indicators and grand claims of high % profits. Are these real trade profits or backtest numbers?
Also, I think it would be beneficial if we trade a filter with real money for awhile before we post it. "Past performance does not predict future results", and a good backtest of a screen does not necessarily result in profitable trades. Its fun to devise and backtest them, but the proof is in the profit.
Dick
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #27070
- Ignore karennma |
6/25/2003 8:35:18 PM
I think he posted 1/2 of it.
Could it be (backtested 30 days):
Show stocks where Close gained more than 25 percent over the last 4 days and volume is above 100000 and close is between 2 and 3 and date offset is 30 and add column close 30 days ago
karennma
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #27072
- Ignore karennma |
6/25/2003 8:54:22 PM
It IS posted & it is awesome. Go BACK to his post. It's all there. I got 100% winners! Whewww!
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dmindy
42 posts
msg #27074
- Ignore dmindy |
6/25/2003 9:40:56 PM
ok everyone... step back a minute here.
I'm not commenting on the filter.. maybe it is the best ever, I never ran it but PLEASE keep in mind...
"date offset 30" does NOT give you a good backtest for "periods of thirty days". All it does is give you what happened this last 30 day period.
In order to get that you'd need to test for thirty day periods starting at various dates in the past. Stockfetcher can't do that (as of yet).
If you bump it up and do a date offset 60 or 280 (or whatever) the percentages reflect what happened from that date until NOW. Also not a good back test.
The only way to back test for thirty days via stockfetcher is to do a date offset 30 every day for a year or two AND THEN report the results. Not very effective.
Date offset gives you a GREAT "rough starting point" for possible winning filters but shouldn't be your only source of "back testing"
There are plenty of good filters, and given enough time (20 days, 30 days, a thousand whatever) most of them will look awesome.
Practice Due diligence before labeling something a 100% winner.
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murknd
62 posts
msg #27079
- Ignore murknd |
6/25/2003 11:58:13 PM
dmindy,
You obviously haven't clicked on the "performance" colum heading. When you run "show results 3 months ago" from the view filter results screen, you can click on the "performance" column heading and a new screen will pop-up to show 1,2,3,4 day, 1 week, 1, 3 month and current performance for that filter. You can change the date offset, click forward/ backward 1 day or 1 week and the adv vs decline and overall performance of the filter is calculated - seems pretty flexible to me. Check it out.
D
P.S. I agree with your due dilligence comment - no such thing as 100% winner - they're called stock "filters" not stock "winners" or stock "picker guarantees" - I'm currently running 10-14 filters, running a match test and then studying these for best (educated) pick.
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dmindy
42 posts
msg #27080
- Ignore dmindy |
6/26/2003 2:02:33 AM
murknd
True enough.
I am aware of the performance tab.
I posted a question to the stock fetcher team about how that worked. I've not gotten a response yet.
I'm not sure if it shows a time frame or the results if you would have moved the date offset up by that much.
Once the SF team clues me in I'll trust it more.
If it indeed functions as you indicate then I would agree that the back test is more robust that just the date offset.
Again, I'm not trying to poo-poo anybody's filter.
I Just hate to see a bunch of people running around talking about a "holy grail" of filters based on a 3 day old filter and the back test results from one site.
The point was really "Do your OWN investigation".
(although I would hope that goes without saying.)
Also if you have the SF team's word on how the performance page reads please let me know! I'd love it if that were the case!!
Thanks!
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ig0r
51 posts
msg #27083
- Ignore ig0r |
6/26/2003 11:24:58 AM
karenma, are you refering to the following filter?
Show stocks where Close gained more than 20 percent over the last 4 weeks and Average Volume(5) is above 50000 and the rsi(2) is below 70 and thr rsi(2) has crossed above rsi(3) and close is between 0.01 and 1.0 and the historic volitilty(5) is above 70
100% winners? What are you talking about, the results are chunk
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