dafishman
9 posts
msg #45742
- Ignore dafishman |
7/12/2006 9:38:10 PM
hi NIKO, what about like JOYG? I am not criticising, I am just making sure I use this correctly! Do you blndly at the open, just go long or short? Or wait...
Let say stock XYZ, today closed at 50.00, tomorror it opens at 51.00, now we go short, but when? at 50.99? Or exactly at the open, at 50.89? That is where I am confused!
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #45744
- Ignore TheRumpledOne
modified |
7/13/2006 12:12:01 AM
"TRO, maybe I am missing something but today, I see alot of losses using this system, or/and some big drawdowns....There were 38 matches going into today? Correct? LEt me know if you sort them some way and somehow choose betetr ones or do you pick anyone?"
I do believe I said that I trade the ones where the gap has filled 80 TIMES OR MORE!
Are you running the filter on page 1 of this thread?
If so, there were not 38 matches with 80 or more fills, there were only 9!
80 or more means 4 out of 5 times the gap fills.
That's what is called an "edge".
HTH.
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #45745
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
7/13/2006 12:15:33 AM
"Let say stock XYZ, today closed at 50.00, tomorror it opens at 51.00, now we go short, but when? at 50.99? Or exactly at the open, at 50.89? That is where I am confused! "
You have choices...
1) Short at the open
or
2) Wait and see what direction it is heading and then short when it moves toward the previous close.
Why would you do #1? If you are playing the "odds", you take the trade immediately.
Why would you do #2? You are cautious and risk adverse so you wait for the trade to develop in your favor.
MAY ALL YOUR GAPS BE FILLED.
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #45748
- Ignore nikoschopen |
7/13/2006 3:24:21 AM
dafishmen sez:
"hi NIKO, what about like JOYG? I am not criticising, I am just making sure I use this correctly! Do you blndly at the open, just go long or short? Or wait...
Let say stock XYZ, today closed at 50.00, tomorror it opens at 51.00, now we go short, but when? at 50.99? Or exactly at the open, at 50.89? That is where I am confused!"
______________________
That really depends on what type of gap you encounter. You wouldn't want to fade a gap like a breakaway gap. What we're particularly concerned with are the "common gaps" that typically gets filled in a matter of few days. Above all, the gaps I am alluding to are the "opening" gaps. As far as I know, the only conventional wisdom behind these gaps are that they're mostly short-lived and ure better served by fading them.
To answer ure question above, I would need to know how the stock in question have behaved recently. Is it in an uptrend or downtrend? In additon, does it have a history of frequent gaps and, if so, how frequently are they filled? I would also need to consider how large the gap is in percentage terms, especially in light of its average true range. For example, JOYG is not unknown for experiencing bouts of spasm that result in opening gaps. Upon closer scrutiny you will notice that these gaps are relatively small in size and they get filled rather fast. Of course, there may be other variables than what I have already mentioned in considering how best to play the gap scenario. So would I jump in at 50.99 or 50.89 when the stock gapped up 1 point (that's a 2% gap)? Likely not. There are many stocks that doesn't even have a daily range of 2%.
In the meantime, you might want to check out those books and articles I mentioned in the above post: http://www.stockfetcher.com/stockdb/fetcher?p=forum&fid=1002&tid=41276&mid=45615&sb=view&start=50#45615
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dafishman
9 posts
msg #45750
- Ignore dafishman |
7/13/2006 8:16:48 AM
TY TRO and NIKO,
I missed the above 80 and I will try them today!
Thanks again
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contrahawk
68 posts
msg #45753
- Ignore contrahawk |
7/13/2006 9:02:14 AM
nikoschopen,
Perhaps I did not hear correctly, but I could have sworn you said "It's not what you trade, it's how you trade it"!
Jim
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #45756
- Ignore nikoschopen |
7/13/2006 11:36:12 AM
contrahawk,
Ha..ha..very funny :)
Don't you think the old cliché has outlived its usefulness by now? It ain't how you trade, my friend, but how NOT to trade IMHO.
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luc1grunt
622 posts
msg #45773
- Ignore luc1grunt |
7/13/2006 1:05:12 PM
Bought AAPL after it showed upward momentum (along with NAZ comp) at 52.60 (inside the gap) with a quick target of $ .34 (just shy of yesterday's close). When it blew through the gap, set a trailing stop at .25 from 54.10. Hit my stop at 53.85.....quick $100+. Today's the day I "should have" bought 200 shares, but got toasted for $75 yesterday in 5 minutes on this particular stock.
...........still working on my initial stop (mental or mechanical) once I place the trade on gappers......anyone wanna share some techniques? Right now it is based on the average range of the 1 minute bars, but that can be tricky. Luc
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guru_trader
485 posts
msg #45799
- Ignore guru_trader |
7/14/2006 4:47:51 AM
dafishman, here is TRO's page1 filter with the 80% criteria ...
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dafishman
9 posts
msg #45803
- Ignore dafishman |
7/14/2006 8:28:55 AM
thanks i appreciate it.
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