ronun
27 posts
msg #81456
- Ignore ronun |
10/20/2009 6:26:21 PM
dm1518
A good place to check the S & P 500 trend is Bulkowski"s site. Plus there is other worthwhile info.
http://thepatternsite.com/Indicator.html
ronun
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #81457
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
10/20/2009 6:35:41 PM
I don't know if the question has been asked to you before, but In cases like this when the S&P has hit a high, would you advise going ahead and buying your screen's top pick (against the grain), or is it better to wait until the market overall (S&P) dips?
--- As well, can you create a backtest and give us the results to determine which move is better?
++++++++++++++++++
Several people has asked this - I have not backtested to see if it makes any difference.
I backtested this from 2002 forward, which contained almost every type of market, including the past year's brutal decline. Overall results still clock in at 80+% wins, average yield at 9.25% per trade, holding stocks an average of 56 days.
Will selecting on and off periods for using this improve the odds? I don't know ...
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #81458
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/20/2009 6:39:25 PM
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miketranz
961 posts
msg #81472
- Ignore miketranz |
10/20/2009 11:01:51 PM
Kevin,I have a few questions.1)I'm watching VMI,which has confirmation.It broke a lower BB,now it has a green day up.Are you entered in the position already or are you waiting for next day follow through? 2)When and where exactly,would you be entering the position?3)Whats your downside risk,in dollar terms,points,percentages? 4) The 80% back test win rate has a 56 day avg holding period.Have you ever plugged in a 1-10 day holding time to see what the win rate would be?5)On the back test itself,is there any stop loss at all,in any terms?6)Whats your most profitable time frame holding period? 7)How long have you been trading this method? 8)Are you using limit orders or market orders to enter & exit? Thank you for your time.Mike..........
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #81482
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/21/2009 8:14:02 AM
Kevin,I have a few questions.
1)I'm watching VMI,which has confirmation.It broke a lower BB,now it has a green day up.Are you entered in the position already or are you waiting for next day follow through?
2)When and where exactly,would you be entering the position?
3)Whats your downside risk,in dollar terms,points,percentages?
4) The 80% back test win rate has a 56 day avg holding period.Have you ever plugged in a 1-10 day holding time to see what the win rate would be?
5)On the back test itself,is there any stop loss at all,in any terms?
6)Whats your most profitable time frame holding period?
7)How long have you been trading this method?
8)Are you using limit orders or market orders to enter & exit? Thank you for your time.Mike..........
++++++++
1. The backtest uses the open on the day following the "close above close 1 day ago" confirmation signal.
2. Buy at the open on the day after confirmation, or use a limit order if that is preferable.
3. No stop losses or trailing losses used, so the downside is whatever you are investing. In real terms, it is very unlikely that an IBD top-rated stock will drop too much. As you can see from the Open Trades I post each night on the first page of this thread, some of the stocks are down 20+% right now, but all of the closed trades are positive. It simply is based on patience.
4. No - have not tested any shorter periods.
5. None.
6. I have not looked at this.
7. Since 8/26/09 with real money. I am no longer investing in new stocks that pop up ysing this system, but am posting them for others if they want to trade.
8. A mix - sometimes I use market, others I have bought using limit orders. I like limit orders better since you have more control over your entry price.
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miketranz
961 posts
msg #81484
- Ignore miketranz |
10/21/2009 8:56:55 AM
Thanks Kevin.I'm going to watch and possibly execute VMI to see how this system plays out.I'll use my own risk management numbers and levels.I want to see what results come out of it from a swing trade,1-10 day holding period.I noticed you pick from IBD top rated stocks that have sold off.Good idea,at least you're buying into solid stocks.I'll keep you posted on my results.Thanks again for your help.Mike......
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dm1518
15 posts
msg #81493
- Ignore dm1518
modified |
10/21/2009 10:58:15 AM
Thanks Kevin for the quick responses.
As of last night, 30% of the S&P 100 has an RSI over 70. It'll be interesting looking forward to see what your screen will reveal on the next big dip, say for example, when 15%+ have RSI under 30.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #81496
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/21/2009 1:02:14 PM
PLEASE DO NOT TAKE ANYTHING IN THIS THREAD AS PROVIDING PROFESSIONAL (OR UNPROFESSIONAL) INVESTMENT ADVICE. THIS IS DESIGNED ONLY TO FOLLOW A STRATEGY AS IT MOVES FORWARD, AND NOT TO SUGGEST ANYTHING OTHER THAN THAT CERTAIN STOCKS MIGHT BE OF INTEREST BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!
[caps lock off] ok??
Thanks. Kevin
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #81519
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
10/21/2009 7:04:39 PM
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #81549
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/22/2009 1:11:58 PM
NITE, DIN, CMG, KCI, SMP are all giving confirmed buy signals right now. No sell signals generated so far today.
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