Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #80487
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
10/1/2009 9:37:18 PM
Thanks Kevin! Just wanted to clarify as we have two stops to work with - stop loss and trailing. I used an 8% stop loss, not the trailing for my test. Again, changing the exit to "touched" upper BB made the system break even during the incredible down turn. Once again, I wondered about the online version of IBD. Do you use it or just get the paper. I was considering subscribing but wondered if you could get all the same information online?
++++++++++++++
I had an online subscription (free for a few weeks) and could not filter stocks by IBD Composite rating. Seemed odd that they wouldn't offer this option. Therefore, I simply went to the store, bought the IBD Paper for 3 bucks, and went through it by hand.
Straight 8% stop loss versus no stop loss comparison for the last four months:
Yours (with 8% stop loss):
There were 81 total stocks entered. Of those, 62 or 76.54% were complete and 19 or 23.46% were open.
Of the 62 completed trades, 49 trades or 79.03% resulted in a net gain.
Your average net change for completed trades was: 12.60%.
The average draw down of your approach was: -4.65%.
The average max profit of your approach was: 16.64%
The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 8.39
Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 212.78%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 33.16%
Total (Cash + Market): $116,199.32
Mine (no stop loss):
There were 81 total stocks entered. Of those, 58 or 71.60% were complete and 23 or 28.40% were open.
Of the 58 completed trades, 58 trades or 100.00% resulted in a net gain.
Your average net change for completed trades was: 18.04%.
The average draw down of your approach was: -4.50%.
The average max profit of your approach was: 19.86%
The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 0.00
Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 228.94%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 33.16%.
Total (Cash + Market): $121,097.83
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drew9
171 posts
msg #80492
- Ignore drew9 |
10/1/2009 10:47:56 PM
Thanks I will go pick up a paper! The filter with an 8% stop loss is still outstanding as I was just trying to see how it fared in the worst possible timeframe while limiting risk. The fact is most people probably would have been quite happy during that timeframe to break even. It certainly makes up for it nicely in up markets. Keep up the great work!
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richo
74 posts
msg #80501
- Ignore richo |
10/2/2009 6:59:38 AM
I bought ICON @12.60 based on a hunch of a reversal : bottom tail larger than body and anticipated close above open
and anticipated close above close yesterday all occurring on a major selloff. The 12.60 price was actually below the open(12.65) but I was fairly confident that if it didn't close above then open, it would likely close higher than the previous day
Rich
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #80503
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/2/2009 8:04:25 AM
Richo:
ICON was one of only a handful of stocks to close in the green yesterday. Probably a good call on your part.
Good Luck!
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #80557
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/2/2009 2:53:08 PM
Sold NUS yesterday at the open for $18.56. It dropped yesterday like almost every stock did, closing at $18.31.
Today - it exploded back up, now at $19.52. Makes me wonder if I should think a little bit more about alternative exit criteria.
Example - when it closes above the UBB, you place a trailing stop at the MA(16) centerline. That way you keep profit, but let the stock run as far along the upper band as it may want to.
Might look at this for past trades and see if it would work or not. Something to play with over the weekend!
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gabestogie
79 posts
msg #80560
- Ignore gabestogie |
10/2/2009 3:10:31 PM
kEVIN:
I like that. Perhaps an alternative would be a tight Trlg. stop (1%) at the upper BB to give it a chance to run more and then a re-entry point off of a BB center. I'll play around also. As we know they will not all run past uppr BB and the ma16 may.@#$%^
Oh well something to workout, worth looking into.
Gabe
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #80562
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
10/2/2009 3:34:48 PM
The CONFIRMATION filter has 2 hits from yesterday:
RADS and TAST
Will not buy either until Monday morning, after I have done a little DD on them.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #80568
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/2/2009 5:48:16 PM
I like that. Perhaps an alternative would be a tight Trlg. stop (1%) at the upper BB to give it a chance to run more and then a re-entry point off of a BB center.
+++++++++++++++
Then you would have been stopped out on NUS below where it is now. That why I think you need to give the stock "breathing room" from the UBB to the median line.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #80569
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/2/2009 6:16:56 PM
02 OCTOBER 2009
CONFIRMED BUY Signals: RADS, TAST
AWAITING CONFIRMATION: ACTG, AEPI, BAMM, BBV, CBOU, CHDX, EEFT, FIS, GENT, ITWO, JDAS, LAD, MFB, MHS, RBA, SMRT, SMSI, SWKS, TNS, UHS
SELL Signals: NONE
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gabestogie
79 posts
msg #80570
- Ignore gabestogie |
10/2/2009 6:47:56 PM
KEVIN:
Your correct, don't know what I was thinking of.
Gabe
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