Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #78887
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
9/9/2009 4:46:41 PM
Just wanted to start a thread on my trading performance using the Bollinger Band(16,2.5) strategy. I'll update daily as time permits so that you can see how this system fares in the real world.
However, please do not think that this thread is to provide any investment advice or service - it is not. The intent is to document a strategy as time moves forward, rather than continually backtest it. You will see real-time adjustments (I'm guessing) on both entry and exit points, plus I hope it will stimulate thinking and discussion here at SF. You may trade this strategy at your own risk - that's how I'm doing it.
The key elements to this are
1. Start with GOOD STOCKS.
2. BUY on a pullback below the lower Bollinger Band with the settings at 16 (MA) and 2.5 (S.D.).
3. SELL when the stock closes above the upper Bollinger Band.
1. GOOD STOCKS: I use a set of stocks rated 85 or higher by Investors Business Daily. Right now I have ~400 such stocks that I use as a trading set. For those interested, they are as follows:
Create a watchlist called IBD1 and add to it the following stocks:
AAPL ABAX ABV ABVT ACTG ACTU ADS ADVS ADY AEA AEPI AES AFL AGN AIRM ALLI ALXN AMED AMSC AMX ANEN ANSS APAC APKT ARO ARRS ARST ARTG ASIA ASPM ATAC ATHN ATNI ATRI ATW AYR AZZ BAMM BAP BBD BBV BCA BCRX BEC BFR BGFV BGH BGS BIDU BIOS BJRI BKI BMA BMC BPSG BR BRLI BUCY BWLD BWY BYI BZ CA CACC CAM CATM CBOU CCE CCJ CEA CERN CFL CFNB CFSG CGA CGEN CHBT CHDX CHKP CHS CHSI CIB CISG CKSW CLFD CMG CML CNQR CPA CPLA CPSI CRAY CREE CRGN CRI CRM CSC CTB CTCM CTEL CTFO CTGX CTRN CTRP CTSH CTXS CVLT CXO CYAN CYBS CYD CYOU DBRN DDRX DEST DFG DGW DIN DISCA DISCB DISCK DJCO DL DLLR DLM DLR DLTR DORM DRC DRCO DSGX DTG DVAX DVR DXCM EBIX EBS ECPG EDU EEFT EEI EJ ELGX EMS ENDP EONC EPAX EPAY EPB EQIX ESLT EVOL EVTC EXPE FCFC FDS FFG FFH FFIV FHCO FIRE FIS FISV FLS FLY
Now create a second watchlist called IBD2 and add to it the following stocks:
FTI FUQI G GCA GENT GES GET GETI GFA GIB GIGA GIII GIVN GLDC GLDD GLP GMCR GOK GOL GOOG GPS GRRF GTLS GTS GTSI GYMB HDB HGSI HILL HITK HMIN HMSY HPQ HRBN HWKN IBM IBN ICON IHG IMA INFA INFY ININ INT IOSP IPCM ISH ISRG ITUB ITWO JCG JDAS JOSB JOYG KBR KCI KONG KSS LAD LFT LIFE LINC LKQX LL LPS LTM LULU LZ MA MANT MD MDAS MDRX MED MEDX MELI MFB MFE MHS MNRO MR MSTR MV MWIV MYRG NCMI NEOG NETL NEU NFLX NICE NILE NITE NMM NOVN NRG NTES NUS NVEC NWS ODSY OFC OFG OII ORCL ORN PCLN PEGA PETS PHH PKX PL PRAA PRX PSSI PTI PVD PVH PWRD QGEN QSFT QSII RADS RAX RBA RBI RGR RHT RIMM RINO RKT RMD RNOW ROST ROVI RY SAN SBUX SCL SEPR SFG SGP SHOO SIRO SLH SMLC SMP SMRT SMSI SNDA SNX SPSS SSRX STAR STEC SWI SWKS SWM SXCI SY SYNT TAST TBUS TDC TDG TECD TEN THC
Now create a third watchlist called IBD3 and add to it the following stocks:
TIN TIS TJX TLEO TLVT TMK TNDM TNH TNS TPX TRCR TRIN TRLG TSL TSRA TTEC TTEK TTM TUP TWGP UHS ULTA ULTI UNF UNFI UNM URBN URS UTA V VIP VIT VLGEA VMI VNR VPRT VRAD VRX WATG WBD WBMD WCRX WDC WES WIRE WIT WLT WMS WNS WRC WRLD WW WX WXS WYN WYNN YORW ZUMZ
You only need to copy the list and then paste it into the "add symbols" box. These are the watchlists the filter will search.
2. The BUY filter: Very simple:
3. Exit criteria: SELL when either of the following happens: the stock hits a 20% profit or it closes above the upper Bollinger Band(16,2.5). The profit stop is there to lock in any decent gains - my original backtesting did not have this in it, but I feel more at ease taking 20% than letting it ride too much farther.
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klynn55
747 posts
msg #78889
- Ignore klynn55 |
9/9/2009 5:33:43 PM
thank you, kevin! will give it a try!
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #78891
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
9/9/2009 6:52:49 PM
You're welcome.
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hawkeyes002
49 posts
msg #78900
- Ignore hawkeyes002 |
9/9/2009 7:43:51 PM
thanks alot
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xxcheck
53 posts
msg #78903
- Ignore xxcheck |
9/9/2009 8:04:43 PM
Thanks Kevin... Running doesnt filter any stocks? Seem right? Still holding ETFC?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #78904
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
9/9/2009 8:06:36 PM
Well STAR is trading at 25.50 after the bell - maybe the 20% profit stop isn't such a great idea?
We'll see ... I'll track the trades that were profit stops for a while in a separate list, and if it appears that they keep going strong past 20%, I'll modify accordingly.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #78905
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
9/9/2009 8:10:37 PM
9/9/2009 8:04:43 PM
Thanks Kevin... Running doesn't filter any stocks? Seem right? Still holding ETFC?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Running the filter should give you no hits for today (as indicated in my post). All OK if that happens - for me, a good filter doesn't give me too many stocks to consider at any given time. Do you have IBD1, IBD2, and IBD3 saved as watchlists?
ETFC was bought following M4M's strategy, not this one. Still holding and waiting on that one. Lots of chatter about a possible buyout of E-Trade soon. If so, the stock will soar.
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xxcheck
53 posts
msg #78918
- Ignore xxcheck |
9/9/2009 10:02:26 PM
Copied all IPD lists. Thanks Kevin
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #78921
- Ignore BarTune1 |
9/9/2009 10:53:22 PM
Kevin,
Does IBD have a listing of their worst stocks in the event I was going to try to employ your strategy in reverse ..... that is, when I want to short because I feel the market is overbought.
I have added your filter, both positive and negative for screening purposes. It would be nice to run the reverse strategy against the worst IBD stocks.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #78924
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/9/2009 11:55:21 PM
Reverse the filter settings for shorting, but you don't have to change the stock list (remember that the IBD rankings are based on the last 3-5 Q of performance, not really a short term ranking).
Look at the charts - if you take a short position on the close above the upper band, you will make money.
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