corsino
259 posts
msg #53628
- Ignore corsino |
7/29/2007 9:19:24 AM
Do your filters backtest terrific for the last two years but your stocks haven't been doing too well this month?
Backtest your filters just for this July, and you might find out why. I backtested 8 filters and the best one was only 50/50 for July so far.
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boswellrw
20 posts
msg #53629
- Ignore boswellrw |
7/29/2007 9:24:17 AM
Is this not an indication that the current market environment is "irrational"? When selling panic hits, even strong stocks are sold. Tuesdays NYSE decline/ad ratio was almost 15 stocks sold to 1 bought. Not many went up.
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corsino
259 posts
msg #53630
- Ignore corsino |
7/29/2007 10:40:25 AM
Just about all the indexes have broken down thru their Ma (50)'s in a free-fall.Maybe heading down to their Ma(200)'s. It would look worse, except a few high-priced stocks are still going up, but that's not healthy for the market. Tomorrow's action may be critical.
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killerdude
32 posts
msg #53633
- Ignore killerdude |
7/29/2007 11:33:05 AM
It was a really good week for me!
As long as you have the right buy trigggers, and dont' get greedy, there's lots of money out there, and losts of filters here
Dood
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heypa
283 posts
msg #53634
- Ignore heypa |
7/29/2007 11:59:20 AM
All the above comments show that most stocks go with their index, after all they are usually components thereof. There is an old observation about the way things work. When the cops raid the whore house they take the piano player too.
Also the old trueism that says don't buck the market applies.It's much easier to go with the flow to succeed rather than fighting the market.Some people can go against the flow and most of them are nimble day or very short term players.
I suppose that somewhere in here Paretto's observation applies.
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #53636
- Ignore nikoschopen |
7/29/2007 3:17:12 PM
The reason why most filters don't work is because they were overoptimized to curve fit with the best times of the past, but you can only replicate so much of the past performance.
Might I also add that you really didn't need a filter this week to have known that the market would tank. When the Dow failed to hold its head above 14,000, especially in light of those morons at CNBC making the same outrageous comments they did back in 2000, you cannot help wonder...Déjà vu. Call it the "a-ha!" moment.
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msummer2007
129 posts
msg #53638
- Ignore msummer2007
modified |
7/29/2007 3:55:32 PM
Precisely, That is why personally, I opt to create filters that do not incorporate indicators. I try to create filters based on price and price alone. Technical indicators are a visual adage. Check out the filter I posted earlier (A try at swing trade perfection). It would have kept you out of the market last week (from the long side). There was only 1 trade with it, MA, and it actually held up pretty well considering. This week there are 6 new plays for Monday.
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