Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #84404
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/14/2009 3:03:11 PM
Basically, yes, if you are trading off of weekly data or entering only on Monday at the open.
These are small limitations for most people, but they gives you erroneous results if you are trying to backtest a weekly filter.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #84553
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/17/2009 8:35:52 AM
PWER once again hit the 5% target.
over the last 61 weeks (since 10/11/08) this approach (investing in the top ranked stock at the open on Mondays) has generated a return of 138%, averaging just over 2% per week.
Success rate is 45 weeks net positive return, 16 weeks net negative return (Win/Loss ratio of 2.81, 74% success rate)
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gabestogie
79 posts
msg #84648
- Ignore gabestogie |
12/18/2009 12:49:58 PM
Kevin:
Nice thread you have here. I'm a little late but ready to jump into the crock pot. Is the filter on page 1 still the one you are using?
later,
Gabe
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #84649
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/18/2009 12:58:53 PM
Gabe:
Glad to see you back in action. Please note that over the past two months this approach has met with modest success - it it still profitable, but only at about 5-6% cumlative since 10/12. This market is range-bound, so it has been a little harder to get real momentum in some of these stocks. Also, stocks that have had strong runs lately are also targets for year-end profit taking, which I think has been part of the challenge over the last 10 weeks or so.
That being said, The obvious top contender will be PWER (again, as this has hit its target every week for the last 10 weeks without a sweat).
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mazotrade1
5 posts
msg #84671
- Ignore mazotrade1
modified |
12/18/2009 7:23:00 PM
Kevin-
"profitable, but only at about 5-6% cumlative since 10/12. This market is range-bound, so it has been a little harder to get real momentum in some of these stocks."
My point exactly. TRO's Crock Pot is just that -- a crock. No offense to TRO or you, who are both exceptionally generous and helpful, but the CP indicator simply I.D.s high-momentum stocks and calls tops. There are a lot of indicators / strategies that do this. TRO would be the first to admit that half the challenge is knowing *how* to trade the signal.
TRO's best contribution with Crock Pot: Find a statistical advantage. Thanks for sharing.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #84673
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/18/2009 7:42:02 PM
No offense taken - I freely acknowledge that no filter works under all market conditions. That, however, does not negate the value of this or any other filter that can deliver triple digit returns over the past year.
On 10/12/09 SPY was at 107.68. Today it closed at 110.21 (a gain of 2.35%). This filter, even with a couple of -10% weeks, is still more than twice as profitable as a Buy-and-Hold approach.
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gabestogie
79 posts
msg #84697
- Ignore gabestogie |
12/19/2009 1:15:25 PM
Kevin:
Ran the scan today and came up with PWER. Did some homework as usual. All the stars are lined up in the sky for it to move higher. Some of the checks I look at are:
signal stock score +98--(great)---I consider above 70 safe
sentiment stock score +78--(great)--I consider above 60 safe
Institutional ownership is close to 50%
insider ownership 5% with some recent activity this month
The following Techs also in buy mode: RSI,CCI,UO,MACD,STOH'S,OBV,ACUMM/DIST,CMF,MFI,PVO,ADX, just to mention a few, many are in the overbought zone. That does not mean it will not move higher, as we know, signals could go into overbought and remain there for months while the the price of a stock will gradually climb higher.
Game plan:
Monday morning buy at the open.
place sell price 5% above the open price
place stop loss
turn off the cptr. and go mend the fences on the lower forty
Trade safe,
Gabe
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gabestogie
79 posts
msg #84807
- Ignore gabestogie |
12/22/2009 11:47:24 AM
Kevin:
PWER opened on Monday @ 4.67. I got in @ 4.70.
Sell target is 4.90 for +5%.
"HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY SEASON"
Gabe
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #85182
- Ignore gmg733 |
12/29/2009 3:19:45 PM
Kevin,
Maybe a good addition to your approach would be to look at W%R to see if the stock is overbought/oversold. I know that positions can be overbought/sold for extended periods, but it may be enough to tilt the odds in your favor in a sideways environment.
Just a thought.
gmg733
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #85520
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/4/2010 4:12:38 PM
This weeks top stock pick is CHTL (I had to reduce the requirement for a reward score to 2.7 to get any hits).
It opened at 1.85, and hit a high of 2.00 already today (+8.1%). Another 5% hit for the week.
Sorry for not posting this yesterday, but anyone following the filter did OK.
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