LebowskiUrbanAchievers
56 posts
msg #91207
- Ignore LebowskiUrbanAchievers |
4/15/2010 9:26:49 AM
Other than making a mental note or manual chart on how many times a stock has been hit on the filter. Is there a way to program display how many weeks a stock has hit the filter?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #91208
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
4/15/2010 9:31:01 AM
The truth is that what we are looking at is VOLATILITY, rather than PERFORMANCE. In that regard, the likelihood of high volatility can continue unabated for long time frames. There is also an arbitrary weighting factor I have included here to more heavily weight recent volatility over older data, which will penalize stocks that missed the target once in in the last month.
Clearly the goal here was to select stocks in a potential streak and ride it.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #91209
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
4/15/2010 9:36:46 AM
Hit the filter or hit the target?
The target hit rate is drawn on the bottom of the chart, along with how often it also hit the 10% stop loss. As for how many times in the past year it has been a part of the filter output ....
you could add the following lines
set{freq, count(reward > 2.79, 52)}
add column freq
This should let you know how many times in the last year it had a reward score of 2.8 or greater, which would include it in the filter output for that week.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #91234
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
4/15/2010 8:05:44 PM
By the way, the list for this week was CPE, CIGX, CDIV, PCBC, PMI, CNLG, and BGP.
Right now, all but CIGX and CNLG have hit their 5% target.
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LebowskiUrbanAchievers
56 posts
msg #91268
- Ignore LebowskiUrbanAchievers |
4/16/2010 11:47:56 AM
PMI hit it's target today. After a long week.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #91282
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
4/16/2010 1:59:35 PM
Actually it hit it's target yesterday - and I hope that anyone playing these got their 5% before today, cause it's all disappearing down the drain as of the GS announcement.
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wsxian
1 posts
msg #91289
- Ignore wsxian |
4/16/2010 3:15:42 PM
I am new to StockFetcher and have been reading the postings on this filter.
It seems to me that one possible addition to the initial filter is this:
and mfi is increasing over 2 days
and mfi > 10
I ran the filter today (yes, it is not the day to do it, I should wait till Saturday...) and I got two picks:
PCBC
MBI
[INSERT JPG here of Graphs of PCBC and MBI from filter ---not sure how to do this]
If you look at the MFI graph for PCBC you can see that PCBC has a saw tooth pattern that goes up and then comes down with the price. This seems to indicate that there is some possible downside when bought while the MFI is high (which is what is showing for this date).
If you look at the MFI graph for MBI, you see a smooth build up which seems to indicate that the price will continue to go up.
I would choose to invest in MBI and let PCBC drop a bit then pick it up after the drop.
Then again - if you look at the PCBC graph you will note the MFI seems to retreat from 80 but the graph also seems to indicate that it has broken past this resistance level and if there is such a thing as resistance level with MFI, then the price is on a break out and should rise.
So ignore what I said...my legal thinking (what if?) at work here....
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #91293
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
4/16/2010 3:28:48 PM
Interesting, but remember - 5 out of 7 hit this week. That's pretty good performnce all by itself.
Historically, investing in the just the top scoring pick each Monday from this filter over the past 15 months or so has generated +150% return.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #91302
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
4/16/2010 5:12:59 PM
This approach may actually benefit from today's action. If there is any significant positive news over the weekend, the bullish Monday phenomenon may come into play big-time, which would help the stocks returned by this filter make some strong moves.
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timgilliland
1 posts
msg #91369
- Ignore timgilliland |
4/18/2010 4:34:52 PM
Question, say your plays trigger on a Monday, are you done for the week or do the picks from the filter still have life in them?
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